基于事故树的三峡库区水体污染公共安全事件诱因分析

三峡库区蓄水后对长江水体自净能力的极大削弱，沿江聚集的各类生产、生活活动对长江水质的多渠道污染极易引发库区各类水体污染公共安全事件。结合对库区水体污染公共安全事件多维度诱发因素的调研结果，运用事故树的分析方法对三峡库区水体污染公共安全事件的逐级诱发过程进行分析。研究表明：存在13条诱发库区水体污染公共安全事件的路径以及3条防治水体污染公共安全事件的路径；在不考虑诱因发生概率的情况下，排污因素是诱发库区水体污染公共安全事件最重要、最根本的因素，促成库区水体自净能力下降的回水区变长，水流紊动减弱和水位抬升三方面因素是次重要的诱发因素。只有对不同的诱因施行不同的监测和控制策略，才能对库区水体污染公共安全事件开展有效预警、预控.     

浅议经济开发区环境风险评价

从经济开发区与建设项目环境风险的区别入手，分析了开发区环境风险评价的特点，并对开发区环境风险评价的内容及方法进行了阐述。通过实例分析，提出了适合于开发区环境风险评价的内容与模式，并提出在开发区环境风险评价方法上需要进一步丰富和发展的内容。     

Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling

The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) has become a dominant tool in evaluating the accuracy of models predicting distributions of species. ROC has the advantage of being threshold-independent, and as such does not require decisions regarding thresholds of what constitutes a prediction of presence versus a prediction of absence. However, we show that, comparing two ROCs, using the AUC systematically undervalues models that do not provide predictions across the entire spectrum of proportional areas in the study area. Current ROC approaches in ecological niche modeling applications are also inappropriate because the two error components are weighted equally. We recommend a modification of ROC that remedies these problems, using partial-area ROC approaches to provide a firmer foundation for evaluation of predictions from ecological niche models. A worked example demonstrates that models that are evaluated favorably by traditional ROC AUCs are not necessarily the best when niche modeling considerations are incorporated into the design of the test.     

Evaluating Local Benefits from Conservation in Nepal’s Annapurna Conservation Area

Protected areas are integral to the global effort to conserve biodiversity, and, over the past two decades, protected area managers have begun to recognize that conservation objectives are next to impossible to achieve without considering the needs and concerns of local communities. Incentive-based programs (IBPs) have become a favored approach to protected area management, geared at fostering local stewardship by delivering benefits tied to conservation to local people. Effective IBPs require benefits to accrue to and be recognized by those experiencing the greatest consequences as a result of the protected area, and those likely to continue extractive activities if their livelihood needs are compromised. This research examines dispersal of IBP benefits, as perceived by local residents in Nepal's Annapurna Conservation Area. Results reported here are based on questionnaire interviews with 188 households conducted between September and December 2004. Results indicate that local residents primarily identify benefits from social development activities, provisions for resource extraction, and economic opportunities. Overall, benefits have been dispersed equally to households in villages on and off the main tourist route, and regardless of a household's participation in tourism. However, benefits are not effectively targeted to poorer residents, those highly dependent on natural resources, and those experiencing the most crop damage and livestock loss from protected wildlife. This article provides several suggestions for improving the delivery of conservation incentives.     

Soil contamination of heavy metals in the Katedan Industrial Development Area, Hyderabad, India

Studies on quantitative soil contamination due to heavy metals were carried out in Katedan Industrial Development Area (KIDA), south of Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India under the Indo-Norwegian Institutional Cooperation Programme. The study area falls under a semi-arid type of climate and consists of granites and pegmatite of igneous origin belonging to the Archaean age. There are about 300 industries dealing with dyeing, edible oil production, battery manufacturing, metal plating, chemicals, etc. Most of the industries discharge their untreated effluents either on open land or into ditches. Solid waste from industries is randomly dumped along roads and open grounds. Soil samples were collected throughout the industrial area and from downstream residential areas and were analysed by X-ray Fluorescence Spectrometer for fourteen trace metals and ten major oxides. The analytical data shows very high concentrations of lead, chromium, nickel, zinc, arsenic and cadmium through out the industrial area. The random dumping of hazardous waste in the industrial area could be the main cause of the soil contamination spreading by rainwater and wind. In the residential areas the local dumping is expected to be the main source as it is difficult to foresee that rain and wind can transport the contaminants from the industrial area. If emission to air by the smokestacks is significant, this may contribute to considerable spreading of contaminants like As, Cd and Pb throughout the area. A comparison of the results with the Canadian Soil Quality Guidelines (SQGL) show that most of the industrial area is heavily contaminated by As, Pb and Zn and local areas by Cr, Cu and Ni. The residential area is also contaminated by As and some small areas by Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn. The Cd contamination is detected over large area but it is not exceeding the SQGL value. Natural background values of As and Cr exceed the SQGL values and contribute significantly to the contamination in the residential area. However, the availability is considerably less than anthropogenic contaminants and must therefore be assessed differently. The pre- and post-monsoon sampling over two hydrological cycles in 2002 and 2003 indicate that the As, Cd and Pb contaminants are more mobile and may expect to reach the groundwater. The other contaminants seem to be much more stable. The contamination is especially serious in the industrial area as it is housing a large permanent residing population. The study not only aims at determining the natural background levels of trace elements as a guide for future pollution monitoring but also focuses on the pollution vulnerability of the watershed. A plan of action for remediation is recommended.     

三峡库区城镇建设用地驱动因子路径分析

随着三峡大坝的修建．三峡经济飞速发展．带动了利用三峡库区城镇建设用地的变化。本文以三峡库区21个县市1995—2005年城镇建设用用地的变化量为主要研究对象。结合1995-2005年期间第二产业与第三产业的集中指数与区位商的空间分布变化。采用路径分析建模的方法。奠立了城镇建设用地与固定资产投资、社会商品零售总额、第二产值、第三产值及城镇人口的路径模型．确定了备影响因子对蜮镇建设用地变化的影响程度。其中第二产值对城镇建设用地的变化影响最大．影响力最小的是城镇人口。此项研究进一步验证了路径分析模型在土地利用变化驱动力分析研究中的可行性．同时也为库区城镇建设用地的控制提供了参考。     

青藏高原生态屏障区近十年生态环境变化及生态保护对策研究

从生态保护与管理的角度出发,综合分析了青藏高原生态屏障区近十年生态系统结构、服务功能、生态胁迫等生态环境变化特征,并提出生态保护对策与建议。结果表明,2000年－2010年屏障区生态系统结构稳定,其中城镇和湿地面积增加明显;生态系统服务功能整体上升,其中屏障区北部区域改善明显;生态胁迫以人口、GDP、载畜量等人类胁迫为主,自然胁迫整体较低;未来应继续加强基本草原保护,实施生态修复工程,不断提高屏障区的重要生态功能。     

三峡水库水动力分区及总磷标准研究

采用EFDC模型计算2010~2018年三峡水库流域水龄.结果表明,三峡水库水龄由上游库尾至下游库首愈来愈大,尤其坝前水龄高达100余天,湖泊属性增强,坝前支流受库区影响大,大坝调度对水龄影响较大,高水位运行期水龄将增长至2~4倍.基于水龄空间分布将三峡水库及其17条主要支流划分为河流型、河湖过渡型和湖泊型.水龄影响因素定量分析表明,水龄与水位呈正相关,与流量呈负相关,泄水期变化速率较蓄水期明显,单位流量与水位内水龄变化幅度高达6~7d,变化区间介于30~100d之间.最后,提出基于水龄权重法的河湖过渡区总磷评价标准,该标准可揭示库区水体总磷的时空变化特征.     

三峡库区消落带落羽杉人工林土壤细菌群落结构多样性及动态变化

消落带是连接陆地与水域的交错地带,具有重要的生态功能,其适生木本植物的种植对消落带土壤的生物地球化学循环起着重要的作用.为探究适生植物对三峡库区消落带环境的适应机制,采用高通量测序技术对消落带退水后适生植物落羽杉(Taxodium distichum)不同生长时期(T1:5月、 T2:7月和T3:9月)的土壤细菌群落组成及多样性进行研究,同时采用PICRUSt2对细菌功能进行预测.结果表明,土壤pH值、硝态氮、铵态氮、土壤蔗糖酶、磷酸酶和脲酶等理化指标随时间变化显著(P<0.05);土壤细菌多样性、丰富度和结构也随时间变化而变化,除Chao1以外,根际土壤细菌的α多样性均表现为：T1>T2>T3,非根际土壤细菌α多样性则表现为：T3>T1>T2. RDA分析表明,影响细菌群落的理化指标主要有土壤pH值、脲酶、铵态氮和硝态氮.所有土壤样本中共检测到细菌60门,其中以变形菌门和酸杆菌门为优势细菌门.根据PICRUSt2预测,代谢是落羽杉土壤细菌群落中普遍存在的基本功能,与C、 N和P有关的各代谢途径存在一定的时间差异.以上研究结果有助于加深对三峡消落带植被修复...     

三峡水库藻类“水华”预测

根据三峡库区江段16条一级支流以及重庆市35座大中型〖JP2〗水库的调查资料，分析天然河流与水库两种不同水流条件下，水体叶绿素a浓度与总磷和透明度的关系。结果发现,在水库环境中，水体叶绿素a的浓度与总磷以及与透明度都具有较好的相关性，但在河流条件下则没有明显的关系。由于三峡库区江段大多数支流的营养水平已达到富营养化状况，当三峡水库建成、水流条件发生变化后，在支流河口等水域存在爆发“水华”的风险。为此，我们根据1998年枯水期，在三峡库区长江江段流域面积大于100 km2的40条支流河口实测的总磷浓度，利用所建立的水库环境中总磷与叶绿素a 浓度的关系，对三峡成库后在局部水域爆发“水华”的可能性和程度进行了分析，并提出了相应的对策。